TLDR
- Bitcoin’s price could reach $250,000 to $840,000 in three to five years under a bullish model.
- The forecast relies on 20%-40% of global portfolios allocating 2%-4% to bitcoin.
- That level of adoption could mean $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion in new inflows.
- Financial advisers holding bitcoin rose from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025.
- 29 of the top 30 U.S. investment advisers now hold bitcoin, though allocations stay small.
Bitcoin’s price could climb sharply over the next three to five years, according to a new adoption model from research firm River. The model looks at how much money could flow into bitcoin as more portfolios add it.
River shared the findings in a post on X, walking through the math behind the projection. Analyst River pointed out that bitcoin ownership today is still low compared to how much wealth exists worldwide.
Only about 4% of the global population owns any bitcoin. Institutional investors hold even less, with investment advisers allocating just 0.008% of assets to the asset on average.
That gap between current ownership and potential future ownership forms the base of River’s forecast. The firm argues there is room left for adoption to grow.
How Wall Street Could Push Bitcoin Higher
River’s model assumes that 20% to 40% of global portfolios eventually allocate 2% to 4% to bitcoin. This range matches guidance many banks and asset managers already give clients.
Some firms recommend allocations between 1% and 7%. If adoption reaches River’s assumed range, bitcoin would shift from a niche holding to a common part of many portfolios.
The world’s financial assets add up to about $333 trillion. Under River’s assumptions, that would send $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion of new money into bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply matters here. Unlike stocks or commodities, no new bitcoin can be created to meet rising demand, so new money entering the market has fewer places to go.
Adviser data backs up the idea that adoption is already moving in this direction. The share of financial advisers holding crypto climbed from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025.
Another 56% of advisers said they plan to add crypto exposure or are weighing it. Separately, 29 of the 30 largest U.S. registered investment advisers now hold bitcoin in some form.
Their median allocation sits at only 0.10% of assets, though. Adoption is spreading, but the amount of money involved per adviser remains small so far.
What Inflows Could Mean for Bitcoin’s Price
River’s model uses a multiplier to estimate how new money in bitcoin affects the price. It assumes every $1 of net inflow adds about $3 to bitcoin’s total market value.
That figure is based on past bitcoin cycles. Previous periods saw market value rise by $4.50, $3.30, and $3.10 for every dollar that flowed in.
Using the more conservative 3x figure, $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion in new capital would push bitcoin’s market value to between $5.5 trillion and $17.5 trillion.
That range works out to a bitcoin price of about $250,000 to $840,000 per coin, according to the model.
River noted the forecast depends on adoption trends continuing at the pace described. Slower adoption or smaller allocations would lower the outcome.
As of now, the most recent data shows 29 of the top 30 U.S. investment advisers hold bitcoin, with a median allocation of 0.10% of assets.
The post Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Model Shows $250K-$840K Range if Adviser Allocations Grow appeared first on Blockonomi.
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This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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