DraftKings’ continued push into prediction markets could cost the company its tribal sportsbook partnerships, according to Indian Gaming Association Chair Victor Rocha, who predicts the operator will suffer once sports event contracts lose their current legal footing. Rocha’s forecast, delivered in blunt terms to Gaming America, frames DraftKings’ expansion into federally regulated prediction markets as a direct threat to relationships built over years of state-by-state tribal dealmaking.
DraftKings runs online and retail sports betting through tribal agreements in Connecticut, Arizona and Washington state – three states that have each pushed back hard against prediction markets. Ahead of this NFL season, DraftKings launched a campaign declaring its app live in all 50 states, explicitly targeting jurisdictions without legal sports betting, including Texas and California.
In California, DraftKings has spent time courting tribal goodwill to advance a legal sports-betting framework. That goodwill appears to have evaporated since the company went all-in on prediction markets, particularly after the Ninth Circuit sided with two California tribes in their case against Kalshi. Rocha said he expects more tribal lawsuits to follow, and CNIGA Chair James Siva said his organization is tracking which sportsbook operators have moved into prediction markets and which, like BetMGM, have stayed out.
A Legal Record Tilting Against Kalshi
The litigation landscape has shifted since a divided Third Circuit panel initially sided with Kalshi in a 2-1 ruling. Since then, courts have moved the other way – the Ninth Circuit’s ruling in favor of the California tribes was the latest in what Rocha described as an unbroken run of decisions favoring states and tribes, a trend he said validates the argument that classifying prediction markets as swaps undermines both state and tribal sovereignty.
New Jersey has since petitioned the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit’s decision, while Robinhood and Crypto.com – allies of Kalshi through the Coalition for Prediction Markets – have petitioned for review of the Ninth Circuit ruling instead. Kalshi has asked for a 30-day extension to respond to New Jersey’s petition, pushing its deadline to November 9.
Tribes Split On Strategy
Not every tribe views prediction markets as the enemy. The Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana became the first tribe to formally announce a deal with Kalshi, initially focused on software for trading event contracts, with the parties leaving open whether sports markets would eventually be included. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour argued that tribal entrepreneurship and a regulated national infrastructure don’t have to be at odds, suggesting one doesn’t need to lose for the other to win.
CNIGA pushed back, acknowledging that individual tribes can make their own business calls but insisting that doesn’t make illegal gaming legal. The split illustrates that tribal responses to prediction markets are far from unified – a dynamic explored further in tribal leaders’ warnings to Congress about the industry’s expansion, and in Tunica-Biloxi’s own prediction-market rollout.
What Comes Next
Nevada’s response to the Ninth Circuit petition is due in mid-October, setting up a busy fall of Supreme Court filings that could determine whether sports event contracts survive as a category at all. Rocha expects Kalshi to keep operating in non-sports markets regardless of the outcome.
For DraftKings, the stakes are framed as a fork: if sports contracts are ultimately approved, the company could abandon tribal partnerships altogether and lean into prediction markets; if they’re prohibited, as Rocha predicts, DraftKings risks being caught without either path secured. Both scenarios remain forecasts tied to litigation still working its way toward the Supreme Court, not settled outcomes.
The post Tribal lawsuits could follow DraftKings’ prediction-market push appeared first on ReadWrite.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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