Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland expects Bitcoin to exceed $250,000 this cycle and says a later 70% bear market would need a peak of $350,000 or more, even though BTC trades near $82,000 today.
The case rests on a theory that this cycle runs eight years instead of four, which would put the top in 2028 and push the real downturn years out.
The Case for an Eight-Year Cycle
In a set of posts on X, Hyland pointed to a chart first shared on June 26 showing that the 2022-2026 stretch of bearish macro conditions, meaning the broader economic backdrop for risk assets, lasted twice as long as the 2014-2016 and 2018-2020 stretches.
Bitcoin’s cycle follows that backdrop, in the analyst’s view, so it stretched by the same factor. This is not two four-year cycles stacked together, Hyland argues. It is one eight-year cycle, and the July 1 low landed in month 44, which leaves roughly 52 months to run.
He also pointed to Bitcoin’s rise from roughly $69,000 to $125,000 as evidence that the current cycle still has room to run.
“BTC went from 69k to 125k. It is very likely it will exceed 250k+ which will further prove the 8-year timing,” the market watcher wrote.
Furthermore, Bitcoin dominance, meaning BTC’s share of the total crypto market, is elevated while altcoin dominance sits near a floor, the analyst noted. According to him, a typical mid-cycle correction and an ETH-BTC ratio that is not elevated fit the same pattern from 2016 and 2020, showing that the asset’s cycle timing has also doubled.
“Given the amount of support between 100k-125k going to $350k+ will be required to unlock a 70%+ bear market for Bitcoin,” he concluded.
Where Bitcoin Trades Now
Market data at the time of writing showed BTC up about 1.5% in the last 24 hours but down 4.5% across two weeks. Its 30-day gain is 8%, against a 26% drop from a year ago, and the OG crypto is sitting 35% below its record of over $126,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance is above 57% and ETH holds 10.5%.
As CryptoPotato reported earlier, BTC fell to a monthly low of $80,200 on Thursday after a rejection at $84,000, and total crypto market value dropped by more than $100 billion at one point. September inflation data that came in slightly above expectations weighed on prices, as did a slide in Asian stocks that left South Korea’s KOSPI down more than 18% in five days.
The post This Bitcoin Cycle Theory Puts $350K in Focus Before the Next Crash appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Bitcoin’s current cycle could last until 2028 because bearish macroeconomic conditions have persisted twice as long as in previous cycles. AA News, Crypto News, social, SocialFB, Bitcoin (BTC) Price
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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