Even though neither company has confirmed any deal, talks of merging SpaceX and Tesla continues to gain ground. The speculations come against the backdrop of new earnings reports from SpaceX as Tesla prepares for its own earnings report on October 21.
A merger question climbs the upvote list
According to an article published by Reuters on October 20, the question “When will SpaceX merge with Tesla?” had 26 votes on SpaceX’s investor platform and 128 votes on Tesla’s. The only other question to get more votes than this one at SpaceX was related to Starship’s lunar lander hardware, with 38 votes.
However, investors want to know whether or not Musk’s costly aspirations concerning artificial intelligence are going to yield satisfactory profits.
The two companies are already entangled
There is more than mere conjecture involved. In January 2026, Tesla put $2 billion into xAI. After that, SpaceX folded xAI into its operations. Cryptopolitan previously reported that they share a lot of employees, equipment, and infrastructure.
In the SEC filing of SpaceX for the second quarter, it has been revealed that SpaceX purchased Tesla Megapacks worth $295 million in that quarter, showing their commercial links.
Can Starlink and car margins fund the AI bill
SpaceX’s earnings from October 20 show some positive indicators with a third quarter revenue of $14.6 billion as well as a net income of $4.4 billion. Its AI unit brought $7.56 billion in revenue while racking up a massive capital spending of $16.44 billion.
Tesla, on the other hand. has sold 486,532 vehicles in the quarter. Also, as of October 19, Reuters has revealed analysts’ expectations of an adjusted earnings of 43 cents a share and a negative cash flow of $4.92 billion.
Barclays’ math favors Musk’s control
According to Barclays, a merger may take place before Tesla’s annual corporate meeting on December 3. This also takes into consideration SpaceX’s purchase of Tesla.
Barclays proposes a structure where 100% of the merger would take place on the basis of stocks. It would allow Musk to have more voting rights at 56%, even if Musk holds only 37% of the merging corporation’s stocks.
During an October 20 Fox Business interview, Constellation Research analyst R. “Ray” Wang suggested Tesla shareholders would receive 0.7 SpaceX shares per Tesla share.
He explained:
“He gets the majority of the voting rights with less of the stock.”
Stuart Varney asked:
“That seems to be very much in Elon Musk’s favor, doesn’t it?”
Wang replied:
“Oh, it is.”
A primary issue for minority shareholders is whether they would have any say in a merged enterprise in which Musk has the majority of the voting rights.
What a merger could mean for competition
PwC’s 2026 outlook highlights how companies are securing AI infrastructure, computing power and distribution through acquisitions and partnerships.
However, a European Commission study found that reviewed mergers tended to reduce innovation while increasing markups. Its findings do not directly predict the outcome of a cross-industry combination.
For both companies, the bigger question remains whether operational efficiencies would justify the costs and concentration of control.
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This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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