Bitcoin is finally stepping into the role it’s been claiming for years – a real alternative to gold. This April, gold futures blew past $3,400 for the first time ever. It didn’t stay at that peak, but it’s still up almost 26% in 2025, even after dipping from that all-time high.
The rally came as the dollar weakened and Trump’s tariffs piled pressure on global trade. People looking for safety went straight for gold. But they didn’t stop there. Some of them bought Bitcoin, and they’re seeing returns too.
The coin hit its lowest point of the year on April 8, then bounced hard, gaining about 20% since that low. That puts it just under 1% up for the year – not wild, but enough to outperform the S&P 500, which is already down more than 6% this year.
Between 2020 and 2024, Bitcoin and gold mostly moved in the same direction. That changed in early 2025. Their connection cracked. A deep dive into FactSet numbers found the 25-week rolling correlation between the two sank to -0.42 by the end of March.
That’s the lowest it’s been since early 2020. For anyone keeping count: zero means no connection. Negative one means they move in the opposite direction. Positive one means they move the same way. So -0.42? Pretty far apart.
But in April, that number started rising again. It reached -0.28, meaning the two are creeping back together, not close enough to call twins, but no longer total strangers. That stat means if gold goes up by 1%, Bitcoin tends to drop by 0.28%. Still inverse, but the gap’s narrowing.
That matters because it signals that people might be treating Bitcoin less like a casino chip and more like a legit defensive play. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, said the change in correlation could be because investors are ditching the idea that Bitcoin is just for risky bets.
“Bitcoin seems to be sort of taking the baton to a certain extent,” Art said. “That’s the new feeling, whereas for most of the last couple of years the tightest correlation you’d likely find with Bitcoin was really the Nasdaq 100 as a more risk-on trade.”
The game changed on April 2, when Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs, which stirred up even more market volatility. That move got people rushing to gold, but it also helped push money into Bitcoin, not for gambling this time — but for cover. Art said these kinds of alternative assets that don’t move with the overall market are what investors cling to when the world’s unpredictable.
Bitcoin’s link to stocks hasn’t disappeared
Before this new twist, Bitcoin moved more like a tech stock. And that still holds water. Art said if you looked at the chart next to the Nasdaq-100, especially during the past two years, Bitcoin was rising when tech was rising. It fit the risk-on mold. And that explains why it outperformed when Big Tech exploded.
But the Bitcoin–gold link still isn’t clean. The two are fundamentally different, and that’s not changing. One of the big differences is how they handle inflation. While Bitcoin is still trying to shake off its casino reputation, gold is getting hoarded by central banks again. That’s keeping it above $3,000 despite the chaos.
Jeff Kilburg, CEO of KKM Financial, said gold is getting scooped up as an inflation hedge. “Gold has been an inflation play,” Jeff said. “You’re seeing central bankers hoarding it, and that’s kind of the reason why it’s still above $3,000 — the record all-time high.”
And when it comes to who’s buying, Jeff said there’s a big difference too. “There’s a different DNA in a Bitcoin investor,” he said. “I do think that the characteristic of a Bitcoin investor is probably more patient and less reactionary than the ‘Mag Seven’ investors.”
The final word came from Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research. In a note he wrote back in March, Geoff said most of the time, Bitcoin still behaves more like a tech stock than gold. He thinks investors should look at it both ways: a big tech player and a hedge against traditional finance. It’s not one or the other. It’s both.
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This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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