Although at its face the results seem obvious, a recent study by [Sandrah Eckel] et al. on the impact of electric cars in California is interesting from a quantitative perspective. What percentage of ICE-only cars do you need to replace with either full electric or hybrid cars before you start seeing an improvement in air quality?
A key part of the study was the use of the TROPOMI instrument, part of the European Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite. This can measure trace gases and aerosols in the atmosphere, both of which directly correlate with air quality. The researchers used historical TROPOMI data from 2019 to 2023 in the study, combining this data with vehicle registrations in California and accounting for confounding factors, such as a certain pandemic grinding things to a halt in 2020 and massively improving air quality.
Although establishing direct causality is hard using only this observational data, the researchers did show that the addition of 200 electric vehicles would seem to be correlated to an approximate 1.1% drop in measured atmospheric NO2. This nitrogen oxide is poisonous and fatal if inhaled in large quantities. It’s also one of the pollutants that result from combustion, when at high temperatures nitrogen from the air combines with oxygen molecules.
Considering the massive negative health impact of nitrogen dioxide on human health, any reduction here is naturally welcome. Of course, this substance is only one of the many pollutants generated by cars. We are also seeing a lot of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) generated from car tires, with a significant amount of microplastics coming from this source alone.
Add to this the environmentally toxic additive 6PPD that is added to tires along with e.g. carbon black, all of which help to make tires last longer and resist e.g. UV radiation and ozone exposure. While 6PPD isn’t necessarily directly harmful to humans, the PM2.5 pollution definitely is. As for carbon black and other additives, they’re still the subject of ongoing research.
One of the things that make statistics exciting is that of nuance from understanding the subject matter. Without that the adage of ‘Lies, Big Lies and Statistics’ applies, with spurious correlations being often promoted due to either ignorance or for unsavory purposes.
In the case of this study by [Sandrah Eckel] et al., it would seem that they did their due diligence, and the correlation makes sense objectively, in that having fewer ICE cars in favor of non-ICE cars would improve air quality. That said, as the tires of electric vehicles tend to wear faster due to their heavier weight, it remains to be seen whether it’s a net positive.
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This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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