Bitcoin’s (BTC) on-chain data indicates the market has entered a mature “speculative phase.” This means that the crypto asset could be in the later stages of the current bull cycle.
According to indicators, in particular, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio and the composition of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, investor behavior is showing classic late-cycle traits.
“New Whales” Dominate
CryptoQuant observed that the NUPL stands at +0.52, a level which has been previously associated with the transition from optimism to euphoria, as seen during the 2017 and 2021 peaks. With roughly 97% of the circulating supply now in profit, confidence in the market is strong, though this also leaves limited room for further upside without a cooling period.
Meanwhile, short-term holders now represent 44% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. This is the highest on record, essentially meaning that long-term holders are taking profits while newer investors, the so-called “new whales,” are increasingly dominating market control.
In previous cycles, this shift from long-term to short-term holder dominance has marked the final expansion phase of a bull market. However, the current setup appears more complex. Institutional inflows through spot ETFs, expanding stablecoin liquidity, and broader market participation are helping to absorb sell pressure, resulting in a steadier form of speculative momentum. Overall, on-chain metrics portray a market driven by strong liquidity and sustained inflows, rather than retail exuberance alone.
Analysts suggest that a drop in the short-term holder share could signal the next major transition, depicting a move from speculation back toward accumulation, which is typically led by long-term investors preparing for the next cycle.
Caution Warranted
Santiment took a cautious stance as it found that Bitcoin is holding just above $113,000 amid mild bullish sentiment from traders. The last major move occurred Sunday when retail anticipated a drop below $100,000, which created an ideal buy zone. Price action often goes in the opposite direction of popular sentiment.
Additionally, crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that the crypto asset must reclaim $119,000 to sustain bullish momentum; failure could trigger a correction toward $96,530, according to Pricing Bands.
The post Bitcoin Enters Speculative Mode: Here’s What It Means For Investors appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Bitcoin is entering an interesting phase in its market cycle, where old market dynamics might be shifting. AA News, Crypto News, Bitcoin (BTC) Price
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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