The cryptocurrency market may be approaching a local bottom, according to Felix Hartmann, founder of Hartmann Capital.
In a February 8 post on X, Hartmann pointed to extended negative funding rates and widespread bearish sentiment as signs that the market could soon rebound.
“I might be early, but it feels like we’re near the bottom,” Hartmann wrote, suggesting that current conditions resemble previous cycle lows.
Negative Funding Rates and Bearish Indicators
Funding rates—mechanisms that balance futures and spot market prices—have been negative for an extended period, indicating that sellers currently outnumber buyers.
Sustained negative rates are often a contrarian signal that a market bottom may be forming.
Hartmann also noted that quality altcoins have retraced to long-term trendlines, effectively erasing most of their Q4 2024 gains.
In December 2024, Ethereum (ETH) traded above $4,000, with speculation that it could retest its all-time high of $4,878 from November 2021.
However, ETH has since fallen to $2,639. Similarly, Solana (SOL) reached a new high of $295 on January 19, only to drop to $201 in subsequent weeks.
Meanwhile, the meme coin sector saw a 32.38% decline in total market capitalization by the end of December, further reinforcing weak sentiment across the crypto space.
Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland recently suggested that altcoins may not revisit their December highs for at least two months, if not longer.
Hartmann echoed this view, stating that market sentiment is “absolutely wrecked,” which is often a bullish signal.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 46 (“Fear”), a sharp decline from last week’s “Greed” score of 60.
Other analysts agree that poor sentiment could indicate a reversal. Mike Alfred, a well-known crypto analyst, noted that the “terrible” sentiment mirrors past conditions that led to major market-wide rallies.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also weighed in, stating that retail sentiment is the worst it’s been in years.
However, Hougan pointed out that institutional investors remain “extraordinarily bullish,” highlighting a major disconnect between the two groups.
Venture Capital Sell-Offs May Be Nearing an End
Hartmann believes that while crypto prices may continue to fluctuate, the market could be entering its final corrective phase.
He pointed out that most venture capital token allocations have already been liquidated over the past two quarters, suggesting that selling pressure is easing.
Between March and October 2024, approximately $35 billion worth of unlocked tokens flooded the market, significantly increasing supply and contributing to price declines.
With fewer new tokens hitting exchanges, the market may soon stabilize and reverse upward.
As reported, the amount of Ether withdrawn from crypto derivatives exchanges has surged to its highest level since August 2023, a development analysts interpret as a bullish sign for ETH’s price.
On February 6, Ether’s net outflows from derivatives exchanges reached 300,000 ETH, valued at approximately $817.2 million, with ETH trading at $2,724 at the time.
This movement suggests reduced selling pressure as traders close leveraged positions and move assets to cold storage.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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