Dogecoin is trading at $0.1649, down 3.6% in the past 24 hours
RSI indicators show extremely oversold conditions on multiple timeframes
DOGE is maintaining support above its long-term ascending channel dating back to 2015
Large wallet holders (whales) continue to accumulate despite price decline
Elon Musk confirmed the government has no plans to use Dogecoin despite the D.O.G.E. agency name
Dogecoin has been on a downward trend since early March, losing most of its late 2024 gains and breaking below key support levels. The popular meme cryptocurrency is now trading at $0.1649, showing a 3.6% decline in the past day.
Technical analysis reveals concerning metrics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped into extreme oversold territory. On the 1-hour chart, RSI hovers between 25 and 27, while the 4-hour chart shows readings below 10, an uncommon occurrence that often precedes a bounce.
The daily RSI is currently at 32-33, approaching but not yet in oversold territory. These readings suggest heavy selling pressure but also indicate the potential for a price correction as buyers may see opportunity at these levels.
One analyst on TradingView gives a 30-40% probability of DOGE dropping further to the $0.158-$0.159 support area. However, they assign a higher probability (60-70%) to a near-term bounce that could target the $0.172-$0.175 range.
Despite the short-term bearish outlook, long-term technical indicators show reasons for optimism. Dogecoin continues to hold above its long-term ascending channel support, a trendline that has provided reliable support since 2015.
Market Analysis
The recent pullback brought DOGE to around $0.17, just above the critical 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.18395. If historical patterns repeat, this could mark a turning point before a move back toward the mid-range of the channel at approximately $0.56.
On-chain data provides another positive signal. The Accumulation/Distribution Line measured 20.28 billion DOGE recently, indicating that long-term holders continue to accumulate coins even as prices consolidate.
Wallet data from Santiment shows that large holders aren’t rushing to sell. Addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE, as well as those holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE, have shown steady accumulation throughout March. This suggests larger players may be positioning for potential upside.
However, Dogecoin faces near-term headwinds. It remains below both the 50 and 200-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart, with the 50 SMA acting as resistance at $0.176. A reclaim of the $0.18 level could signal the start of a reversal, especially if supported by increasing volume.
Elon Musk recently addressed speculation about government use of Dogecoin. Despite the playful naming of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), Musk confirmed the US government has no plans to use the cryptocurrency.
Musk has indicated he may end his role with D.O.G.E. by May, having set a goal to accomplish the agency’s mandate within 130 days. He told Fox News, “I think we will have accomplished most of the work required to reduce the deficit by a trillion dollars within that timeframe.”
Crypto analysts remain divided on DOGE’s future price action. Some point to the token’s history of strong rallies following major corrections, citing patterns from the 2017 and 2024 bull cycles.
#Dogecoin$DOGE continues to hold above the lower boundary of this channel. A spike in demand here could fuel a rally toward the mid or upper range!
Others note that potential catalysts could include SEC approval of proposed Dogecoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). From a technical perspective, the four-hour RSI breaching “oversold” territory combined with a breakout from a months-long falling wedge pattern may signal a recovery in the short term.
For near-term price action, market watchers are focused on how Dogecoin reacts at the current $0.165 level. If buyers step in, a move toward $0.172 or higher could happen quickly. But if selling pressure continues, DOGE might extend its decline before attempting recovery.
Dogecoin finds itself at a key inflection point. While price holds above its decade-long ascending channel and large wallets quietly accumulate, confirming a bullish trend will require a sustained breakout above $0.18. If momentum builds, mid-range targets between $0.27 and $0.56 could come into play.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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By Nermeen Nabil Khear 
