Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. has cleared every technical hurdle needed to enter the S&P 500, dragging nearly $70 billion worth of Bitcoin with it.
According to Bloomberg, the company posted an unrealized gain of $14 billion last quarter, putting it firmly into the profit zone the index demands. That was the last missing piece for a firm that has transformed from an enterprise software company into a corporate Bitcoin vault.
If included, passive index funds will be required to scoop up almost 50 million shares, translating to about $16 billion worth at current prices.
That would put institutional investors, including pension funds, on track to become indirect Bitcoin holders overnight, simply by following the index.
For Saylor, that would validate a business model built entirely on raising cash through debt and equity and funneling it into crypto. His approach, once dismissed by Wall Street as reckless, now comes with math, volume, and visibility. And it’s all happening as he deals with a market backlash against his latest financing push.
Strategy outpaces every other candidate in this quarter’s rebalance
The S&P 500 isn’t easy to crack. Companies must be based in the U.S., highly liquid, and worth at least $22.7 billion in market cap. They also need to show positive income both in the most recent quarter and across the past four.
Strategy checks every box. And out of 26 candidates listed by Stephens Inc. this quarter, including Robinhood Markets, AppLovin, and Carvana, Strategy came out on top in terms of float-adjusted liquidity ratio, a key metric for inclusion.
Melissa Roberts, head of index rebalancing research at Stephens, told Bloomberg, “They care about building representation of leading companies in the 500. So, if someone is a big player in the space, it’s hard to ignore them.”
That “space” now includes crypto. The S&P recently added Coinbase and Block, both fully embedded in the digital-asset sector, hinting that the committee is warming to the crypto footprint.
Still, getting in isn’t automatic. The S&P committee applies discretion and considers sector balance. That’s a problem. Tech already dominates the index. Even though Strategy meets every published rule, the gatekeepers may still say no, just to avoid overloading the sector with another high-volatility name.
Volatility and failed capital raises threaten the final decision
Strategy isn’t just profitable. It’s also chaotic. The firm’s 30-day price volatility hit 96%, ahead of even Nvidia at 77% and Tesla at 74%. That type of swing scares the committee, whose job is to maintain the index’s stability.
Some investors who’ve tried to front-run index decisions have gotten burned. Robinhood’s stock soared in June after rumors of an S&P entry. Then the invite never came. The price collapsed.
Saylor’s fundraising model has also run into trouble. A recent preferred stock sale failed, falling short of expectations. That forced the company to return to common stock issuance, which rattled shareholders. The stock fell 17% in August, cutting into the premium Strategy shares held over Bitcoin itself.
Still, the firm made it into the Nasdaq 100 last December. But the S&P 500 is bigger, both in prestige and in assets. Nearly $10 trillion in passive money tracks the S&P, almost double that of the Nasdaq. Saylor said last year that 2025 could be the year his company gets in. The math now backs that up.
There’s also the so-called “index effect.” Research by Antti Petajisto, chief equity strategist at Brooklyn Investment Group, showed that new S&P 500 entrants tend to rally on inclusion.
That boost has become slower over time, as more traders try to guess the committee’s moves in advance. But it still exists. With more capital tied to indexing than ever, price movement tied to rebalancing has only grown.
Edward Yoon, managing director at Macquarie Capital, said the firm’s $90 billion market cap gives it strong positioning by size. But he warned that the final call still depends on sector weighting rules.
“It’s important to note that meeting the eligibility requirements does not guarantee inclusion,” Yoon told Bloomberg. “The S&P committee retains discretion and predicting its decisions has become increasingly difficult.”
Whether the committee says yes or no, every number lines up. Strategy is liquid, profitable, and massive.
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This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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