The US economy added 178,000 jobs last month, a solid number that gave the White House something to cheer about. But the March employment figures tell only part of the story, coming before the full weight of soaring energy costs from the Iran conflict hits American workers and businesses.
The jobless rate fell slightly to 4.3 percent, the Labor Department said Friday. The numbers beat what experts expected, helped by health-care workers returning from West Coast strikes and better weather after a rough winter.
But there’s trouble ahead. The jobs data captures the time after the United States attacked Iran, but before supply problems really took hold. Oil prices have jumped roughly 90 percent since January started, pushing gas above $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years. U.S. crude hit $110 a barrel Thursday, crossing the $100 mark for the first time since 2022.
Health care added 76,000 jobs, keeping up its strong pace as the population ages. Manufacturing, which had been shrinking most of the past year, put on 15,000 workers. Construction, hotels and restaurants, social services, and shipping also saw gains.
Not every sector did well
The federal government cut 18,000 positions as the Trump administration trimmed staff, down 11.8 percent from its high point in October 2024. Finance companies dropped 15,000 workers.
Pay raises slowed down considerably. Hourly wages grew 3.5 percent over the past year to $37.38. Workers still make more than inflation takes away, but that gap is getting smaller with a weaker job market and high prices that won’t budge.
February’s job losses were worse than initially reported, totaling 133,000 positions. January got revised upward to 160,000 jobs, better than the initial count.
Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, warning signs were already showing up. February hiring dropped to its lowest pace in nearly six years. Job openings fell by more than 350,000.
Inflation test arrives next week
Markets are struggling with mixed signals about whether the war might wind down. The S&P 500 gained ground in the holiday-shortened week, breaking a five-week losing streak. But the benchmark index just closed its worst quarter since 2022, dragged down since late February by the war and rising energy costs.
Next week’s consumer price index report will be an early test of the war’s impact. With crude oil jumping so much, experts think March inflation climbed 0.9 percent for the month. “We think the first stage of oil price pass-through will have arrived in March via motor fuel,” BNP Paribas said.
The Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has stalled, remains a major worry. It’s the main shipping route for oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.
Poll numbers bring bad news to White House
Behind the scenes, Trump is feeling the pressure. In the third week of the Iran war, his pollster, Tony Fabrizio, brought troubling survey results to the Oval Office. The war was becoming unpopular.
Gas prices had shot past $4 per gallon, stock markets had fallen to multi-year lows, and millions of Americans were getting ready to protest. Thirteen American service members had died. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and other aides told the President that dragging out the war would hurt his support and Republican chances in November’s elections.
Trump is now seeking a way out, according to two advisers and two members of Congress who spoke with him recently. He wants to wind down the campaign before it damages Republicans heading into the midterms, but he also wants to call it a success.
In a national address on April 1, Trump said the operation was “nearing its completion,” while also threatening to strike Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. “We’re going to bring them back to the stone ages,” he said, “where they belong.”
The next morning, Trump told TIME that Iran wanted to make a deal. “Why wouldn’t they call? We just blew up their three big bridges last night,” he said. “They’re getting decimated.”
But inside the West Wing, there’s growing worry that the situation is getting out of control. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other key officials were caught off guard by Iran’s fierce response, attacking U.S. and Israeli targets across the region in Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
“There’s a narrow window,” said a senior administration official about Trump’s options.
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This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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