By Nermeen Nabil Khear 
What a pump post-election for Bitcoin right? The Bitcoin Bull Market. It is here and in full force. But how long will it last? And how high will it go?
Today, we look at a few popular theories on this and how you can prepare yourself to take full advantage of Bitcoin’s bull market conditions.
The Traditional 4-Year Cycle
By now, a lot of you know there’s this theory out there mostly commonly presented by Plan B about Bitcoin’s cycles. Plan B is also the Stock to Flow model guy. So you may know him from that. He first tweeted about stock to flow and its effect on Bitcoin pricing back in 2019.
My first Medium article! Combining all my tweets about modeling bitcoin’s value with stock-to-flow, the halving, power laws, fractals and questions & answers to one logical story.https://t.co/n5P5uMCKHT
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 22, 2019
Then every so often, including just recently, he repeats his 4-year cycle theory. That theory is based on the premise that at each halving, the flow gets smaller by half. That’s how many new bitcoins are hitting the market each day through mining. It’s currently at 450 BTC per day.
Accounting for this AND the idea that people think the halving is priced in but NEVER is we have the theory. This theory says that there are 2 different 2-year cycles in each 4-year cycle from one halving to the next. One is a bull cycle and one is a bear cycle. Notice the step up, flattening, and downtrend before the next step up. These are the cycles.
Stock-to-Flow model says bitcoin halvings increase scarcity (S2F-ratio) and thus value. A simple trading rule to test if bitcoin indeed pumps around halvings is: buy 6 months before halvings and sell 18 months after. This S2F 6-18 rule (green line) outperforms buy&hold bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/3kgOnlsMZM
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 12, 2024
This theory says that the bull cycle takes place between
6 Months before Halving to 18 Months after Halving
And it does look like the cycles follow in this chart. So when was 6 months before the most recent halving? The most recent halving was on April 19, 2024. That means 6 months prior would be October 19th of 2023 as the cycle buy date.
Let’s see how Bitcoin performed in this period. On October 19, 2023, the Bitcoin price was $28,715. Today’s price on the day our team wrote this is $88,100. That’s a 206% ROI in only 13 months. It’s hard to do better than that without gambling in the memecoin casino. An ROI like this in such a short period with the reduced risk of Bitcoin vs any meme is unmatched in the industry. There’s no place to get a better reward-to-risk ratio than this.
But it’s not like the current bull market in Bitcoin just started on that day performing a reversal of previous trends. The last bear market in Bitcoin was from November 2021 at $65,000 to its most recent low in November 2022 at $16,171. That’s a decline of 75% in a year.
So the real bull market in Bitcoin started in late 2022 with market-crushing returns for holders and DCA investors. And other than the choppy, slightly downward trend from March through early September this year, it has been more or less up only. You can see it right here on the daily chart.
So the cycle or at least the bull market started earlier than 6 months before halving. It started 11 months before that. And if you had waited 11 months, instead of buying at $16,171, you would have bought at $28,715 or 75% higher. You still made amazing returns but it shows you can’t try to time the market. But what if this cycle theory no longer applies? Here are a couple of other scenarios.
Two Other Potential Scenarios for The Bitcoin Bull Market
So if this 4-year cycle theory no longer exists, then what? Well here are a couple of ideas.
- Scenario 1: The ETF Effect
First, we cannot ignore the effect of the Bitcoin ETFs. In just one day last week, Blackrock’s ETF bought $778 million worth of Bitcoin. At an average price of $88,000, that’s 8840 Bitcoin. At a total of 450 new BTC hitting the market daily from miners, this means in one day only Blackrock bought 19 days’ worth of Bitcoin supply.
JUST IN:
BlackRock’s #Bitcoin ETF has hit $40 billion in assets in a record time
The most successful ETF launch ever
pic.twitter.com/IP958ZxIhH
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) November 13, 2024
A supply crunch is happening if it’s not already here. Demand is not slowing down but supply is less available. To be clear, there will still be bull and bear cycles in Bitcoin due to profit-taking or too much leverage in the system for those thinking Bitcoin will never go down ever again.
But we know better. It will. It’s a volatile asset. But if this trend with ETF buying continues then other than a massive ETF sale or black swan event, the bull markets will likely be longer and the bear markets shorter than 2-year cycles for each.
- Scenario 2: Countries Holding a Bitcoin Reserve
Then we have a hot and important trend here. Trump has hinted at it while on the campaign and the US may hold a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The chances of this increase due to the influence of incoming VP JD Vance who is a Bitcoin holder and Vivek and Elon Musk’s Bitcoin and crypto holdings.
JUST IN:
pic.twitter.com/3hj1eIkmqZ
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) November 12, 2024
They will no doubt advise Trump of the soundness of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. But what happens from there? Conventional wisdom, especially on Crypto X, says that game theory will kick in and it will be a race to get a Bitcoin reserve at a reasonable price before the price climbs to $100,000, $300,000, or $1 million per coin.
Or that nations will try to get in some buying now to frontrun the Americans since Trump doesn’t take office until late January. What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.
Pretty clear at this point that there are nation states front running Trump implementing a United States bitcoin strategic reserve. This was inevitable. There will only ever be 21m #bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/U6bgggcL2K
— Steve Gaskill (@gaskillss) November 10, 2024
We do see some truth to this logic. El Salvador shows us a great example of what happens with a reserve. They no longer need the IMF for funding help. They also paid off their bonds and are in a better financial position as a country than ever before.
Final Comments
Technical analysts and those who research Bitcoin extensively don’t even know what to make of this market. Rekt Capital, a very popular trader, sees it 1 or 2 ways, both of which we’ve mentioned here already. CryptoCon, another popular trader, sees one more cycle growing to the top of this market using tools like RSI and Bollinger Bands.
Bitcoin bottomed 547 days prior to the 2016 Halving but topped in its Bull Market 518 days after the 2016 Halving
Bitcoin bottomed 517 days prior to the 2020 Halving but topped in its Bull Market 549 days after the 2020 Halving
Bitcoin bottomed 517 days before the 2024… pic.twitter.com/QUGuDFUjXv
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) November 11, 2024
No one knows of course but history and pattern recognition can help give us some ideas and probabilities to work with. The only thing everyone seems to know for sure is that the bull market isn’t over yet and price expectations in this market are in the 6 figures. Some say 100k or 120k, while others think 300k or more.
It will be a fun ride to watch and see what happens. So what do you think will happen? Let us know in the comments below.
Disclaimer
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to the accepted risk tolerance levels of the writer/reviewers and their risk tolerance may be different than yours. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur due to any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments so please do your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.
The post This is EXACTLY When Bitcoin & Altcoin Bull Markets End appeared first on Altcoin Buzz.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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