Toncoin is consolidating at around $3.29 after reaching a high of $3.54 in early May
Technical support is at $3.21 (lower Bollinger Band and 100-period SMA), with resistance at $3.38 and $3.54
RSI has cooled to 47.64, indicating reduced buying pressure
A bullish pennant pattern has formed with $3.50 as key resistance
Whale activity has increased with large transactions spiking by 84% to $6.12 billion
Toncoin (TON) has entered a consolidation phase following a rally in early May that saw the cryptocurrency touch a high of $3.54. As of May 15, 2025, TON is trading at approximately $3.29, with technical indicators suggesting a pause in the bullish momentum that characterized the previous uptrend.
The 4-hour chart reveals that TON is currently trading near the midline of the Bollinger Bands. Support has established around $3.21, a level that coincides with both the lower Bollinger Band and the 100-period simple moving average (SMA). This convergence of technical factors suggests this price point may serve as a short-term floor.
On the resistance side, TON faces hurdles at $3.38 and more critically at $3.54, which represents the recent local high. A decisive break above $3.54 could reignite bullish interest and potentially lead to further price appreciation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought territory and now sits at 47.64. This pullback indicates that buying pressure has decreased after the strong early May run. Meanwhile, the RSI’s moving average at 55.15 may present resistance during any short-term recovery attempts.
Bullish Pattern Emerges
TON has been forming a bullish pennant pattern, which typically signals a potential continuation of the existing uptrend. This formation follows a three-day rally that began on May 8th.
However, momentum appears to be losing steam as the asset tests a crucial resistance level at the psychologically important $3.50 mark. Bulls have struggled to push the price above this threshold, causing TON to hover just below this key resistance zone.
Despite the price stagnation, on-chain metrics tell a different story. Large transactions have surged by an impressive 84%, reaching $6.12 billion. This spike in activity often indicates significant whale or institutional movement, which can precede major price action.
The increased transaction volume suggests that key players in the TON ecosystem might be positioning themselves for a potential breakout above the current resistance levels.
Adding to the bullish case is liquidation data from Coinglass. A cluster of over $999,000 in liquidations sits at the $3.66 level, just above the current resistance. This concentration could act as a price magnet.
If TON manages to break above $3.50, it could trigger a cascade of short liquidations. Traders caught in short positions would be forced to buy back TON to cover their positions, potentially adding fuel to an upward move.
Volume has decreased compared to the early May rally, which may limit near-term volatility. A fresh surge in buying interest would likely require positive fundamental developments or broader market strength to materialize.
TON remains above both the 100 and 200-period SMAs, which is generally considered a bullish signal. However, the short-term momentum has clearly slowed, putting the cryptocurrency in a holding pattern.
For TON bulls, the immediate focus is on securing a strong close above the $3.50 resistance level. If successful, attention would shift to the $3.66 area as the next target.
The combination of a bullish pennant formation, increasing whale accumulation, and potential leverage liquidations all point to the possibility of renewed upward momentum. However, until a breakout occurs, TON may continue to trade within its current range.
As of the latest data, Toncoin is trading in a tight range between support at $3.21 and resistance at $3.50, with key levels to watch at $3.54 to the upside and $3.10 to the downside for clues about its next directional move.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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