Ludovic Subran, Chief Investment Officer at Allianz SE, has raised concerns about Section 899, a controversial provision in President Donald Trump’s sweeping financial legislation.
According to Subran, the tax rule could cause the dollar to drop by 5% and lead to a fall in stock prices if it gets implemented.
Wall Street analysts widely agree that the measure would further erode foreign investor confidence. Already shaken by Trump’s unpredictable trade tactics and growing concerns over the US’s worsening fiscal outlook, international investors may see Section 899 as yet another deterrent to holding American assets—once considered a global safe haven.
Subran describes Trump’s section 899 tax as a “big scary moment” for markets
In an interview on Tuesday, June 3, Subran said the item, included in legislation that the US House passed in May as Section 899, is “the exact thing that people don’t focus enough on.” He further cautioned that the provision would raise the tax rate on individuals and companies from nations with tax policies that the US considers “discriminatory.”
If implemented, Subran described such a move as a “big scary moment” for markets. He then forecasted a 10% fall in stocks, a 5% decline in the dollar, and a half percentage-point higher yields on US Treasuries. Foreign investors have significant investments in US long-term securities, amounting to $31 trillion, including stocks and bonds.
Based on Subran’s argument concerning the situation, he believes that the markets are not fully considering the complete implementation of Article 899 today. According to him, this action could really alarm investors, noting that it would act like a type of “capital control.”
Congress’s nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, responsible for making official revenue predictions for the legislation, also shared views on the topic of discussion. They highlighted the risk of foreign money leaving the country. The JCT predicts that this provision will generate $116.3 billion in revenue over the next decade, but it will also decrease annual US tax revenues by $12.9 billion in 2033 and 2034.
Trump announced taxing nations putting special digital service taxes on US tech firms
About 17 European countries and others worldwide have taxes in place or have announced it on US tech products, such as Meta’s Instagram. For instance, Germany announced it would consider a 10% tax on platforms like Google.
The levies have been a target of bipartisan anger in Washington. As a result, Trump intends to take action against countries that have put special digital service taxes on big American tech companies like Amazon and Alphabet. This is part of a large tax bill that Congress is looking at.
Representative Ron Estes, a Republican from Kansas who helped create this part of the bill, stated that if foreign countries want to tax US businesses, then those foreign companies should be taxed too.
Democrats, who are largely opposed to the would-be law, have not opposed the retaliatory tax provision in Section 899 of the 1,100-page bill.
Section 899 rule gives Congress the power to make tax and spending decisions
Trump has long pressured foreign nations to grant broader access to U.S. businesses. Under the proposed legislation, his administration would gain the authority to impose tax hikes on foreign individuals and companies operating within the United States. However, the US Constitution grants the power to set tax and spending policy to Congress—not the president—raising questions about how such authority would be exercised.
Section 899 would also authorize the Treasury Department to call foreign tech taxes “unfair” and add the country to the list of “discriminatory foreign countries.” Other foreign taxes would also be scrutinized.
Peter Roskam, a former Republican congressman and leader of the federal policy team at Baker Hostetler law firm, stated that this new Section 899 rule strongly rejects the idea that anyone can label the United States as a tax haven.
Reports from sources revealed on May 30 that the House of Representatives narrowly approved the bill on May 22, and it was to pass next to the Senate.
However, there is broad Democratic opposition to the Republicans’ tax and spending bill, which advances many of Trump’s top priorities like a crackdown on immigration, extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, and finishing some of the green energy incentives.
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This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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