After a brief few hours of upward movement, the crypto market has turned slightly downwards again, reaching a crossroads. Nearly all top 100 coins have seen their prices decrease over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by 3% to $3.41 trillion. The total crypto trading volume is at $89 billion, still lower than what we typically see.
TLDR:
After a brief rise, most coins record additional decreases;
BTC volatility has been on a downward trend;
Even if BTC rallies, the price will likely not surpass $110,000 at this point;
Sentiment has turned bearish in the short term;
US spot BTC ETFs sees two days of inflows, spot ETH ETFs record a thirteen-day streak;
The rally looks sustainable short-term but is more susceptible for a shift now.
Crypto Winners & Losers
At the time of writing, all but one of the top 10 coins per market capitalization are red. Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased by 0.7% over the past day. It’s currently trading at $104,737.
Ethereum (ETH) appreciated 0.5%, losing all it has gained over the last day, now changing hands at $2,614.
The category’s only gainer is Tron (TRX). It appreciated by 1.7% to the price of $0.2731. At the same time, the highest decrease is Dogecoin (DOGE)’s 3.5% to $0.1892.
Moreover, only five of the top 100 coins have seen their prices increase in this timeframe. Tron is the best performer in this category as well, followed by Tokenize Xchange (TKX), with a rise of 0.9% to $31.37.
On the other hand, Monero (XMR) dropped the most: 8.1% to $318.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s increase to the ATH has met growing resistance, as “market data points to exhaustion from earlier buyers and profit-taking by long-standing holders.” Many of the strong accumulation zones from previous cycles have turned into active selling regions.
After briefly leaning toward distribution, the largest $BTC holders are now back in accumulation. All wallet cohorts show varying degrees of buying, with the strongest activity in the 10–100 #BTC and <1 $BTC groups, both reaching a score of 1.0 – the highest possible. pic.twitter.com/hndK1F92qk
“Altogether, the market appears to be at a crossroads, shaped by elevated sell pressure, maturing bullish momentum, and demand that must prove itself resilient,” the report says. “The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this is a mid-cycle consolidation or the start of a broader top formation.”
BTC price is Likely to Remain Capped at $110,000
Nick Forster, Founder of decentralized onchain options platform Derive.xyz, says that market makers are currently short gamma. To maintain their hedge, they need to buy more BTC as the price increases. This creates a positive feedback loop that drives up demand.
However, Forster says, there’s a “gamma hole” at $110,000. At this point, market makers will be forced to stop buying, as they become gamma-neutral.
“This suggests that even if BTC rallies, the price is likely to remain capped at $110,000 – we won’t see the price exceeding this threshold.”
Moreover, there is currently an 11% chance for BTC to surpass $125,000 by the end of September. This is a decrease from 18% last week. The drop reflects both a lower price and lower implied volatility, which has compressed the distribution of potential outcomes.
At the same time, the chance of ETH settling above $3,000 by the end of September has increased from 22% to 24%.
Source: derive.xyz
Meanwhile, long-dated (180-day) BTC volatility has been on a downward trend. It fell from 56% to 46% in two months. “This is likely due to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) raising funds and selling calls into the market, reducing volatility,” Forster argues.
Source: derive.xyz
Finally, the Founder noted that over 57% of all BTC contracts traded on Derive.xyz were puts. This indicates that traders are bearish on BTC in the short term. “This is reflected in the skew (market sentiment), which has shifted toward a more neutral to slightly bearish outlook,” Forster says.
Levels & Events to Watch Next
BTC currently trades at $104,737. It again failed to hold the $105,000 level, reaching the intraday high of $105,910, then pulling back. Compared to its all-time high of $111,814, the coin is down 6.1%. It decreased by 2.8% in a week and rose by 10.9% in a month.
Ethereum’s intraday high was $2,667. It’s down 4.3% in a week and up 45.2% a month, outperforming BTC on the monthly basis.
Moreover, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped deeper within the neutral territory towards a bearish outlook, now standing at 55 today. As a reminder, it previously jumped to the extreme greed of 76, one day after BTC had hit its ATH. The sentiment signals caution in the market, with fear slowly moving in. Whether it will rise to greed or drop to fear will depend on the factors within the market itself and investors’ reaction to them.
Meanwhile, on 4 June, US BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net inflow for a second day in a row, following an outflow streak, adding $86.92 million to the total of $44.57 billion. BlackRock saw inflows of $283.96 million, while Fidelity bled out $197.04 million.
At the same time, US ETH spot ETFs continue the inflows streak of thirteen consecutive days, gaining another $56.98 million on 4 June. BlackRock leads this list with $73.18 million.
The crypto market is still sensitive to news coming out of the US. Recent Automatic Data Processing (ADP) data showed 37,000 created jobs, the slowest private-sector hiring pace in two years.
In response, Donald Trump once again called for the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.
A drop in interest rates would be beneficial for the crypto market. Lower rates reduce the cost of borrowing, making risky assets more attractive, resulting in new money pouring into crypto. However, lower rated may lead to inflation.
Quick FAQ
Why did crypto move against stocks today?
The crypto market saw a wide, albeit minor, decrease over the past 24 hours, while the stock market recorded a mixed picture at closing. The S&P 500 has increased by 0.0074%, the Nasdaq-100 is up 0.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.22%. The two do not seem to be moving in tandem currently. Stocks reacted to Donald Trump’s renewed calls for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Lower rates can boost stock prices but can also lead to inflation.
Is this dip sustainable?
Analysts still argue that the current drop in market cap and prices of major cryptos is a part of a typical post-ATH pullback. However, they also note that the market is at a crossroads. Investors should keep in mind the market’s continued sensitivity to macroeconomic developments that may turn a short-term pullback into a bearish trend.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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