The crypto market cap slipped again today, down 4.1% to $3.33 trillion, while daily trading volume reached $142.2 billion. The market remains volatile, though some major coins are showing signs of resilience.
TL;DR:
The crypto market cap dropped 4.1% today to $3.33T, volatility remains high;
BTC is holding above $103K after a pullback from $111.8K ATH;
Profit-taking by long-term holders is capping short-term gains;
Small caps like KILL BIG BEAUTIFUL and VICE see strong speculative interest;
Institutional demand and ETF inflows could drive BTC toward $115K by early July;
The U.S. jobs report may influence BTC’s next move, with $95K–$97K seen as key support.
Crypto Winners & Losers
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is changing hands at $103,188, largely unchanged on the day. Ethereum (ETH), however, fell another 5.8% to $2,455.79.
XRP is stable at $2.13, up a slight 0.1% in the past hour. Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) remain anchored at $1.
Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) declined 3.5% to $147.26, continuing its recent downtrend. Dogecoin (DOGE) took a heavier hit, down 7.2% to $0.175.
On the flip side, small-cap coin KILL BIG BEAUTIFUL surged 168.5%, followed by VICE up 35%, and GIZA up 17.7%, reflecting growing speculative activity in smaller tokens.
$BTC has broken above the short-term holder realized price.
While top assets remain range-bound, on-chain metrics suggest that the market may be gearing up for a new move. BTC’s resilience above the $100K level remains key for broader sentiment.
Macro factors such as ongoing U.S. debt concerns and global liquidity trends could shape the next leg of the cycle. For now, crypto investors are watching closely for confirmation of a breakout.
Bitcoin’s Rally Faces a Test as Long-Term Holders Lead Profit-Taking
Bitcoin recently surged to a new all-time high of $111.8k before retreating to $103.2k, as long-term holders began realizing profits, according to a report by Glassnode.
The latest rally was largely spot-driven, with key accumulation zones now serving as support between $81k and $104k. However, older cohorts are now offloading, posing resistance to further upside.
On-chain data shows that many previous accumulation zones have flipped into distribution zones, particularly those formed between $25k–31k and $60k–73k. These seasoned holders are shaping the current market structure, applying selling pressure that could cap Bitcoin’s short-term gains.
Cost basis models highlight immediate support near $103.7k and $95.6k, with resistance sitting at $114.8k. The average entry price for short-term holders is now around $97.1k, with wider bands defining the market’s current sentiment range. A break of these levels could signal whether momentum is fading or reigniting.
Profit realization has intensified, with daily profits spiking to $1.47B, marking the fifth such event this cycle. Importantly, this selling is being led by long-term holders—those holding for over a year—indicating mature capital rotation rather than speculative churn.
In short, Bitcoin’s latest surge has entered a critical phase. Elevated profit-taking by veteran investors, coupled with cooling momentum, suggests that the market may be transitioning into a consolidation or top-formation phase. Whether support zones hold in the coming weeks will determine if the rally resumes or deeper corrections unfold.
Levels & Events to Watch Next
BTC is currently trading at $103,450. It briefly touched an intraday high of $103,467 but could not break higher. From its recent all-time high of $111,814, the coin is now down approximately 7.5%. Over the past week, BTC has declined by around 3%, while still posting a monthly gain of roughly 8%.
Bitcoin could climb to $115,000 or higher by early July, driven by institutional demand, ETF inflows, and broader macro catalysts, according to Bitfinex analysts.
In their latest market outlook, they highlighted that Friday’s U.S. jobs report could further influence expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would benefit risk assets like BTC.
While the labor data alone won’t dictate Bitcoin’s next move, weaker-than-expected figures could reinforce disinflation trends and support a dovish Fed stance. In this scenario, BTC could test the $120K–$125K range in June. On the downside, the $95K–$97K zone is seen as key for accumulation.
Currently trading near $105,000, Bitcoin faces short-term risks if the jobs report surprises to the upside, which could push BTC back toward $102K or lower.
However, Bitfinex analysts emphasize that Bitcoin’s trajectory remains shaped by a complex mix of institutional flows, macro factors, and evolving market sentiment.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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