XRP currently trading at $2.41, with critical resistance levels at $2.41-$2.45 and $2.96
Analyst Egrag Crypto warns of potential 46% decline to $1.2-$1.3 if XRP fails to break above resistance
XRP has maintained above $2 for nearly five months – the longest period in its history
Recent $75 million settlement with SEC provides regulatory clarity for Ripple
Fresh legal controversy involving Trump’s mention of XRP triggered a 2.7% price drop despite broader crypto rally
XRP price has moved up nearly 3% in the past day as part of a broader crypto market rebound. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading at $2.41, representing weekly gains of 10.17% and monthly gains of 23.37%.
However, market analysts point to crucial price levels that XRP must overcome to continue its upward trajectory. According to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, XRP faces major resistance in the $2.41-$2.45 range, which aligns with the descending trend line from the market correction in Q1 2025.
To invalidate the bearish forecast, XRP must break and hold above this resistance zone. If successful, the next major hurdle lies at $2.96, which would confirm a sustainable uptrend.
XRP holders should be cautious, as failure to break above these levels could lead to a retest of the $1.2-$1.3 price zone, representing a potential 46% decline from current prices.
Historical Context Makes This Cycle Different
What makes the current price action particularly interesting is XRP’s relationship with the $2 price level. Throughout its history, this level has typically served as strong resistance rather than support.
In its first major rally back in 2017-2018, XRP briefly surged from $0.0055 to an all-time high of $3.80 before crashing. During that period, XRP initially broke $2 on December 30, 2017, but fell below this level just two weeks later.
For nearly seven years, from January 2018 to December 2024, the $2 level acted as a ceiling that capped price movements. Every rally toward this line was rejected, sending XRP back into the $1 range.
The current situation appears different. XRP finally cleared the $2 trendline in December 2024 and has remained above this level for almost five months – the longest period in its history.
The legal landscape continues to play a crucial role in XRP’s price action. On May 8, the SEC announced a settlement that includes returning $75 million held in escrow to Ripple, following the Commission’s decision to drop its appeal against the blockchain company.
This resolution has generally supported bullish sentiment among investors, providing greater regulatory clarity after years of uncertainty.
However, fresh legal concerns emerged recently when reports surfaced that President Trump, who called for XRP to be part of a “strategic crypto reserve,” may have been misinformed about Ripple’s regulatory standing. This controversy triggered a 2.7% price drop on Sunday, May 11, bucking the broader crypto market rally that saw Bitcoin extend above $104,000.
The recent legal flare-up has impacted market metrics. The XRP Fear and Greed Index slipped from 78 to 63 within 24 hours, while social sentiment turned negative.
Derivatives markets also reflect trader caution. Open interest across major platforms declined by 4.7%, indicating deleveraging as traders prepare for potential volatility. The funding rate on perpetual futures has turned neutral, shifting from the positive premium observed earlier.
Trading volume dropped by approximately $360 million on Sunday, showing reduced market participation as uncertainty increased.
XRP’s current technical posture shows price action holding above the midline of the Keltner Channel at $2.36, which serves as immediate support. Maintaining this level preserves the bullish structure built since late April.
For now, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic while XRP holds above $2.36, but traders should closely monitor price action at key technical levels to determine whether the next move will be a breakout or breakdown.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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