Bear pennant pattern on 4-hour chart suggests potential 35% drop to $0.464
Whale addresses offloaded approximately 2 million ADA in one week
Price rejected at $0.75-$0.76 resistance, currently trading near $0.7 support
Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem shows weakness with only $360 million TVL
Despite bearish signals, the $0.65-$0.68 range may offer buying opportunity
Cardano has experienced a roller coaster of price action in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency saw a massive pump in early March, rising over 100%, only to give back most gains to profit-takers.
The price has been consolidating sideways since then. This movement has created uncertainty among traders about the next market direction.
From a technical standpoint, Cardano has confirmed a bear pennant breakdown on the 4-hour chart. This pattern often signals continuation of a downward trend.
The price recently rejected resistance at $0.742. It failed to reclaim both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs, which reinforces the bearish outlook.
The bear pennant formed after ADA’s sharp drop from $1.15 to $0.713. This was followed by a consolidation phase that created a symmetrical triangle pattern.
However, the pattern has broken to the downside. This breakdown has sent ADA to $0.714, and technical projections suggest a move toward $0.464 by April.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.06. This reading remains in bearish territory and suggests further weakness ahead.
On-chain data from Messari tracks the supply of ADA held in whale addresses. These are wallets containing at least 1,000,000 ADA tokens.
Between March 2 and March 9, the whale-held supply dropped from 23.108 billion ADA to 23.106 billion ADA. This marks a net outflow of approximately 2 million ADA in just one week.
This decline suggests large holders are offloading their positions. Whales may be anticipating further price drops or moving capital to other investments.
Historically, whale distribution often signals upcoming sell-offs. This trend could indicate further downside for ADA unless new buying pressure emerges.
Cardano also faces fundamental challenges that align with this bearish outlook. Despite its research-driven approach and staking ecosystem, the network struggles to maintain momentum.
As of March 17, 2025, Cardano ranked outside the top 10 blockchains by total value locked (TVL). It has approximately $360 million in its DeFi ecosystem.
This figure is far lower than Ethereum’s $48.97 billion and Solana’s $7.06 billion TVL. The gap highlights Cardano’s challenges in attracting DeFi activity.
Despite the 2021 Alonzo hard fork introducing smart contract functionality, Cardano’s growth has been slower than expected. Daily transactions average 66,000 in early March, compared to Ethereum’s 1.1 million.
Broader economic factors have also affected sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s pause on rate cuts and ongoing trade tensions have hurt altcoins more than Bitcoin.
However, not all indicators point to continued losses. The Awesome Oscillator shows weak bearish momentum, and the Accumulation/Distribution line has only retraced gains from early March.
The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 30, indicating fear in the market. This fearful sentiment has persisted throughout March.
For traders looking at risk-to-reward ratios, the $0.65-$0.68 region may offer a buying opportunity. This zone coincides with the range low and has shown support in recent price action.
The one-week liquidation heatmap shows the $0.68-$0.69 area as a liquidity pocket. This could pull prices lower before a potential bounce.
It’s worth noting that Cardano’s next move will be heavily dependent on Bitcoin trends. BTC saw a 2.38% decline in seven hours, which dragged ADA down by 4.68%.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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By Nermeen Nabil Khear 
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