TLDR
- Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick maintains a $250 year-end price target for Solana, which would require the token to surge 107% in less than 90 days.
- The cryptocurrency currently trades at approximately $121, showing minimal movement since the prediction was initially made in February.
- September witnessed a 40% surge in Solana ETF net inflows, climbing to $271 million from August’s $194 million.
- Network validators implemented a policy change on September 26 that doubles the disinflation rate, reducing the speed of new token creation.
- Revenue from decentralized applications on Solana exceeded $100 million for two consecutive weeks, matching levels last seen in August 2025.
As of October 5, 2026, Solana (SOL) continues to trade in the $121 range, creating a substantial distance from the ambitious $250 price target established by Standard Chartered earlier this year. When analyst Geoff Kendrick published his forecast in February, the token was hovering at similar levels, and months later, it has struggled to gain meaningful traction toward that goal.
Achieving the $250 mark before the year concludes would demand a remarkable 107% price appreciation in fewer than three months. Such a rally would elevate Solana’s total market capitalization from its current $71 billion to approximately $147 billion.
The banking institution previously adjusted its 2026 outlook downward in February, reducing the target from $310 to $250. However, Kendrick simultaneously boosted his long-term projections, introducing a bold $2,000 forecast for 2030.
Stablecoin Transaction Volume Drives Standard Chartered’s Valuation Framework
Kendrick constructs his price projections by analyzing the relationship between Solana’s network valuation and the economic throughput occurring on the blockchain. A key factor in his analysis involves the growing preference for SOL and stablecoin trading pairs on decentralized exchanges.
The analyst anticipates that AI-driven automated systems will increasingly leverage Solana’s infrastructure for micropayments, capitalizing on the network’s exceptionally low transaction costs. Nevertheless, Kendrick cautioned that Solana might underperform relative to Ethereum throughout 2026 and 2027 until payment activity reaches sufficient scale to support higher valuations.
Over the past 30 days, Solana has posted an 18% gain. Even with this recent upward movement, the token remains deeply underwater from its $293 all-time high recorded in January 2025, trading 59% below that peak.
The current circulating supply of Solana tokens totals 588 million coins. Unlike cryptocurrencies with hard supply caps, Solana continually mints new tokens as staking rewards, creating ongoing selling pressure that must be counterbalanced by fresh buying demand during any sustained price increase.
Network validators enacted a protocol modification on September 26 that doubles the disinflation rate. While this adjustment reduces the velocity of new token issuance, it doesn’t inherently generate additional market demand.
Market analyst Sweep, known on social media as @0xSweep, identified a recurring price pattern in Solana’s recent behavior. According to his assessment, the token cycles through expansion phases followed by accumulation periods, and SOL currently sits in accumulation territory. Sweep suggested that a temporary dip below $110 could materialize before the next upward movement initiates.
Investment Product Flows and Network Metrics Display Positive Trends
Solana-focused exchange-traded funds experienced a 40% increase in net inflows during September, accumulating $271 million versus the prior month’s $194 million. Current trading volume for SOL stands at $2.3 billion, representing roughly 3.2% of its total circulating market capitalization.
The number of unique addresses interacting with the Solana blockchain daily has demonstrated consistent growth. According to Santiment analytics, a bullish crossover has formed between the 30-day and 50-day moving averages for this on-chain indicator.
Fee generation across Solana’s ecosystem of decentralized applications, including platforms like Pump.fun, surpassed the $100 million threshold for the second consecutive week. This revenue level hasn’t been sustained since August 2025.
From a technical perspective, SOL encounters significant resistance around the $120 price point. The Relative Strength Index presently registers at 64.
Should the price successfully breach the $125 barrier, market participants are monitoring for potential continuation toward $150. Conversely, if buying momentum proves insufficient to overcome current resistance, a retracement into the $110–$115 support zone represents an alternative scenario that traders are preparing for.
The post Why Solana (SOL) Remains 59% Below All-Time Highs Despite Rising ETF Demand appeared first on Blockonomi.
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This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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