Bitcoin price is hovering around $82,000 with risk of dropping below $80,000
President Trump has threatened 25% tariffs on Russian oil amid ceasefire concerns
Investors have withdrawn 6,000 BTC from exchanges amid bearish sentiment
Recession odds have increased, with Goldman Sachs raising 12-month probability from 20% to 35%
Institutional investors like Strategy continue buying despite market uncertainty
Bitcoin is feeling the heat as President Trump threatens new tariffs against Russia. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen to around $82,000, marking its seventh consecutive day of lower lows.
The downward pressure comes as Trump expressed disappointment with Russia over delays in reaching a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine. The President has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Russian oil imports “at any moment.”
This geopolitical tension comes at a time when Bitcoin was already showing weakness. The cryptocurrency has been losing ground throughout March, putting it on track for possibly its weakest first-quarter performance since 2018.
US stock futures have already slipped into the red, with the DOW futures shedding 206 points and the S&P 500 futures down 0.56%. Bitcoin’s price has moved in tandem with the equities markets, reflecting the asset’s growing correlation with traditional financial markets.
The broader economic outlook isn’t helping matters. Last week’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showed a higher-than-expected increase in inflation. At the same time, March consumer confidence data from the Conference Board showed the monthly confidence index at a 12-year low.
Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month recession probability from 20% to 35%. The bank cited a lower growth baseline, deteriorating household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating a willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.
The threat of wider tariffs is adding to market jitters. Trump has repeatedly referred to April 2 as “Liberation Day,” when he plans to assign “reciprocal tariffs” to various countries. This includes a fresh wave of 25% tariffs on cars imported to the US and possible tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry.
Technical Analysis
Technical indicators for Bitcoin are largely pessimistic. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows no crossover in sight, confirming bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) paints a similar picture of weakness.
Some analysts have lowered their price targets. Crypto trader Arthur Hayes believes the Federal Reserve could trigger a Bitcoin price boom in April, but others are more cautious. Pseudonymous analyst Crypto Dad noted: “We’re stuck under a clean descending channel, and the price is now grinding within a high-interest demand zone.”
Veteran chart analyst Peter Brandt has predicted a steep drop to $65,635. While this represents a more extreme scenario, a decline below $80,000 appears increasingly likely in the short term.
Despite the downward pressure, not all the news is negative. Institutional investors continue to buy Bitcoin. Strategy CEO Michael Saylor recently posted his famous orange dots Bitcoin chart with the caption “Needs even more Orange,” indicating ongoing purchases by the company.
Marathon Digital has launched a $2 billion stock sale to power new Bitcoin purchases. Metaplanet and Strategy continue to bolster their holdings despite market uncertainty.
Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses continuing to rise throughout the month. This suggests that long-term holders are using the price dip as a buying opportunity.
Investors have withdrawn 6,000 BTC from exchanges, braving the bearish sentiment. This reduction in exchange supply could eventually help stabilize prices if selling pressure subsides.
The upcoming interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve could also impact Bitcoin’s price. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has clashed with President Trump over the pace of interest rate reductions. Trump has called for rates to be lowered immediately, claiming lower rates would help his plan for wide-scale international trade tariffs.
The last trading day of March will be crucial for Bitcoin. Traders are watching closely to see if the cryptocurrency can maintain support above $80,000 or if it will break down further as fears of “Trump tariffs” intensify.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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