By Nermeen Nabil Khear 
Bitcoin (BTC) price remains in the $85,000- $87,000 range as traders receive mixed signals from on-chain factors. Across crypto spaces, users anticipate an upward movement in price after institutions bought the dip but several on-chain metrics are weakening possibly due to US macro trends. This has led to analysts speculating another correction in Q2 2025.
A Bearish Bitcoin Macro Index
Crypto traders spotted a bearish trend on the BTC macro index, sparking new debates on the asset’s trajectory. This comes after the asset made slight gains in the last 48 hours, suggesting strong resistance ahead. For context, the Index leverages machine learning in several metrics to determine future price cycles.
In a recent X debate, crypto users observed the bearish outlook, which caught the attention of Charles Edwards, the Index founder. He added that bearish metrics are not great, but when they flip positive, he won’t put up a fight.
Similarly, on-chain analyst Burakkesmeci explained that four on-chain metrics signal the end of Bitcoin’s bull cycle. First, the asset’s IFP metrics indicate red signals coupled with the CQ Bull and Bear Market Indicator.
Notably, the MVRV score is below the Simple Moving Average, flagging signs of bear sentiments. Furthermore, the NUPL metric remains below the SMA365, deepening trader fears.
“Historically, when Bitcoin’s MVRV score remains below its 365-day moving average (SMA365), selling pressure intensifies. During the current bull cycle (which I believe is not over yet), Bitcoin last fell below this support level during the August 5, 2024 carry trade crisis. Once the crisis subsided, MVRV reclaimed SMA365, signaling recovery.”
The analyst added that President Trump’s tariff decisions impacted macro indices. However, several commentators anticipate an upward movement, considering the level of new whale accumulations in the market.
Trader’s Fear Escalates
The decline in on-chain momentum has triggered sell pressures, especially in retail traders. Bear projections and inflows to centralized exchanges have exacerbated this. Recently, veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested that a possible Bitcoin price drop to $76k is not an unreasonable expectation after heightening sell pressures.
After Bitcoin’s price dropped over 22% this year, bulls accelerated toward a recovery. However, bearish on-chain metrics remain a major setback for an upward swing. In the past weeks, bear metrics have contrasted with positive macro events.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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