By Nermeen Nabil Khear 
Mark Carney recently secured the Liberal Party’s leadership contest to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s 24th prime minister, raising his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of Polymarket bettors.
Polymarket reported that Carney’s odds of winning the next federal election scheduled for October 20, 2025, had increased by 23% up to 49% from 26% last month. On the other hand, the odds of the current leader of the official opposition and the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, had decreased by 21% from 72% in February to 51%.
Carney’s expertise in business qualifies him to navigate Canada’s economic challenges
Recently, Carney was elected leader of the Liberal Party, replacing Justin Trudeau, during ongoing historical tension and growing fears of a trade war with the U.S. under Trump’s administration. This is his first time getting involved in Canadian politics at the highest level, and a federal election is coming.
On Sunday, after securing 85.9% of the vote on the first ballot, he said, “I will work day and night with one purpose, which is to build a stronger Canada for everyone.”
Concerning the U.S.-Canada trade war, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada’s imports, potentially sparking a trade war. Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on ‘Electricity’ coming into the United States, Trump instructed his Secretary of Commerce to add an additional 25% tariff, to 50%, on all steel and aluminium coming into the United States from Canada, one of the highest tariffing nations anywhere in the world.
Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford, threatened to shut off the US electricity supply entirely. Mark Carney said he would continue to pressure America in response to Trump’s tariff actions.
“My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect and make credible, reliable commitments to free and fair trade,” he said in a post on X. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that Trump has yet to speak with Carney but that “his phone is always open to leaders who wish to speak with him.”
Following these developments, Canadians preferred Carney over Poilievre due to his business expertise and being a former central banker. Poilievre’s support for Bitcoin and ownership of a Canadian-issued Bitcoin ETF had not been a major focus of the Canadian campaign.
The Canadian federal election scheduled for October 20, 2025, could be called sooner
The next federal election is scheduled for 20 October 2025. However, it might occur earlier due to certain circumstances, including when the government general accepts the prime minister’s resignation after the government is defeated in a confidence vote in parliament or when it accepts his advice to dissolve the government.
Pierre Poilievre and the leader of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, have already declared they will call for a vote of no confidence after parliament resumes.
With Carney’s record still fresh and tensions with the U.S. rising, the next election—whenever it happens—will be a test of whether his economic acumen and aspirations for Canada can earn him a long-term mandate.
At the same time, Poilievre and Singh’s pressure for an early election indicates the opposition believes it has a window of opportunity to challenge Carney before he settles into the role.
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This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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