Six in 10 Americans oppose using prediction markets to wager on election results, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found, adding a public-opinion challenge as officials debate how to regulate the industry.
The online survey covered 4,506 US adults nationwide from September 30 to October 5, with a margin of error of about two percentage points. Opposition crossed party lines: 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed election betting.
Government-event wagers draw strong opposition
The poll also found that 65% opposed betting on US military actions and 63% opposed wagers on government policy announcements or decisions. Support was low for both categories, at 8% for military-action markets and 9% for policy markets.
Polymarket and Kalshi offer markets on elections and other real-world events, alongside sports. The companies say they have safeguards against misconduct and work with authorities, including referring accounts they consider suspicious.
The survey found that 93% of Democrats and 89% of Republicans considered it inappropriate for members of Congress or their staff to bet on political events. In April, the Senate barred senators, staff and other officers from using prediction markets, while Democratic lawmakers have introduced bills to restrict the industry. Those efforts reflect concerns that political-event markets could create opportunities for insider trading or manipulation, and that trading around government affairs could raise national-security risks. Lawmakers have also called for tighter prediction-market safeguards.
Most respondents also see gambling
Views were less opposed, but still divided, on professional sports: 43% opposed prediction-market sports betting and 29% supported it. Three-quarters of respondents said wagering on real-world events through prediction markets is a form of gambling; 8% disagreed.
Polymarket has argued that its markets can provide information about events and said more than 90% of visits to its platform are to view markets rather than trade. The poll measures public sentiment, not whether the contracts are legally gambling or whether any particular market should be allowed.
Federal and state regulators remain at odds
The poll arrives as the Trump administration pursues federal rules for the industry and states challenge that approach. The CFTC asserts jurisdiction over the contracts as financial products, while state regulators argue that prediction markets facilitate gambling and should face state gaming laws.
The dispute over which framework applies could reach the Supreme Court, according to legal experts cited by Reuters. Until then, the poll adds a political measure of public resistance to a debate that will shape how operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket can offer event contracts in the US.
The post Public Resistance Puts US Prediction Markets Under Pressure appeared first on ReadWrite.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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