TLDR
- Strategy (MSTR) stock rose 0.88% to $122.14 on Wednesday, trailing Coinbase and BitMine.
- MSCI announces its November Index Review shortly after 5 p.m. ET today.
- JPMorgan once estimated $2.8 billion in outflows, but that was for an earlier proposal.
- Strategy says MSCI-tracking funds hold about $1.6 billion of its stock.
- Changes would take effect after the Nov. 30 close.
Strategy (MSTR) stock was up 0.88% to $122.14 on Wednesday, but it lagged the crypto pack. Coinbase gained 3.34% and BitMine rose 5.67%.
Bitcoin traded near $74,000, up 1.26%. That sits about 2% below Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,456 per coin.
The stock is down 9.1% for the week and 18.9% for the year. Premarket, it traded near $123.
The holdup is an index decision due after 5 p.m. ET today. MSCI will share its November Index Review results then.
The MSCI rule at the center of it
On Oct. 15, MSCI approved rules that bar some “non-operating companies” from its indexes. Firms without substantial operating assets face extra financial tests.
Failing at least four of five measures can make a company ineligible. Existing index members get added protection against immediate removal.
A preliminary simulation flagged Strategy, Metaplanet and Yellow Cake as possible exclusions, according to The Block. Any changes would take effect after the Nov. 30 close.
Two sets of numbers
JPMorgan estimated in November 2025 that Strategy could face $2.8 billion in passive outflows. That could grow to $8.8 billion if other index providers followed MSCI.
That estimate covered an earlier MSCI proposal that was never put in place. The new rules are different.
Strategy sees a smaller hit. It says funds tracking MSCI indexes own 3.1% of its common stock, about 13 million units.
At $123, that works out to roughly $1.6 billion. The company says that is less than a single day of trading volume.
In an Aug. 31 letter, Saylor and CEO Phong Le called the proposal “discriminatory, arbitrary, and misguided.” Saylor has also described Strategy as an operating business, not an investment fund.
Index funds would sell stock to other investors, not Bitcoin. The company’s 850,364 BTC, worth about $63 billion and 4.05% of the 21 million supply, would stay on its books.
Funding is part of the picture too. Strategy reports a BTC Yield of negative 3.7% for 2026, and its STRC preferred stock trades below its $100 stated amount.
Saylor said on Feb. 5 that Strategy does not sell STRC when it trades below 100. In the week to Nov. 8, the company spent more on buybacks than on Bitcoin.
Strategy also sold about $432 million of Bitcoin through the third quarter to cover preferred dividends and fund STRC buybacks. The board has approved sales of up to $1.25 billion, and third-quarter dividends cost $419.6 million.
Its software unit brought in $125.4 million in third-quarter revenue. Its at-the-market program raised $5.41 billion net in the quarter.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $95 million in net outflows on Nov. 10, a fourth straight day. MSCI’s announcement is due shortly after 5 p.m. ET today.
The post Strategy (MSTR) Stock Braces for MSCI Index Verdict Tonight appeared first on Blockonomi.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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