The long road towards 6G: Spectrum, investment and making 5G complete Luciana Camargos | usagoldmines.com

Mobile generations are not isolated events. More than five billion 6G connections are expected by 2040. Yet even then, 6G will only just have become the dominant mobile technology, with the crossover from 5G currently expected around 2035–2037. The 2030s will therefore be a decade of coexistence, with 5G and 6G networks operating alongside one another.

The choices made today will help determine how much capacity mobile networks can deliver in the 2030s and how many people have access to them. Making sure 6G policies encourage investment and support widespread harmonization – delivering economies of scale – will help connect as many people as possible to robust, high-quality communications networks.

What is happening now?

Every generation of mobile technology is part of a long-term evolution that takes years of planning, investment, and coordination before reaching consumers and businesses at scale. Regulation, standards and spectrum all take years to develop in a harmonized fashion. That harmonization is critical to the success of every generation and will be for 6G. Harmonization does not have to mean all the world doing precisely the same thing, but means agreeing on a set of foundational parameters in spectrum, standards and policy.

These are already being developed. They include access to spectrum capable of supporting wide 200–400 MHz channels in relevant bands which not only provide the raw spectrum needed for higher data rates, but also enable more efficient radio technologies, improved network economics and help deliver future AI-native services. They also include finalizing 3GPP work on globally agreed standards that form the basis of the technology.

Finally, they include national digital policies that focus on network investment to ensure that the infrastructure is in place to maximize productivity and economic growth.

5G evolution

There are around 350 5G networks today, a number that still has a lot of space to grow. 5G launched in 2018 but we are only now starting its dominant period, with connections expected to overtake 4G later this decade.

The promise of 5G was a consistent user experience, and it has taken time and investment to deliver this. However, as 5G begins to mature, we are seeing network quality increase and, with that, traffic is growing. Investment needs to continue in many markets across two elements of technology – 5G standalone and subsequently 5G-Advanced.

Both can boost productivity and stimulate further traffic growth, but spectrum is required to realize their benefits. If spectrum is constrained to today’s levels, cities with over 50% of the world’s urban population will be capacity-constrained by 2030.

The success of 5G has not been about delivering a single killer application but rather – and indeed, rather quietly – ensuring that today’s networks keep up with data demand.

Capacity drivers

6G also needs to provide capacity. Network quality and data consumption are closely linked: as networks become faster and more responsive, users consume more data and new, more data-intensive applications become viable.

As AI, sensing and multi-device environments develop, the gap between connections and people will also become increasingly significant. Today there are around 8.8 billion mobile connections but only 5.8 billion unique subscribers. A future in which people, vehicles, machines, sensors and other devices interact continuously will see connections grow much faster than the number of people using them.

Spectrum policy during the 6G era is not simply about maximum speeds. It is about ensuring sufficient capacity where demand is greatest, often using mid-bands, while maintaining broad geographic coverage and a consistent quality of experience – parity between urban and rural areas requires low-band spectrum as well.

6G requirements

Two elements need to be considered when releasing spectrum for the 6G era in the 2030s. The first is ensuring investment in 6G networks is encouraged through forward-thinking government policies. This requires sufficient spectrum to be made available in a timely manner without artificial constraints or unnecessarily high reserve prices.

The history of mobile spectrum allocation offers a recurring lesson: the value of spectrum is not measured by the price paid for a license, but by the economic and social value created by the networks that use it.

The high prices generated by some 3G auctions highlighted the risks of prioritizing upfront revenues over investment. 4G then saw a greater focus on rollout and network economics, although the tension returned in some 5G awards as fragmented 3.5 GHz auctions occurred with no clear roadmap to further access. As operators sought contiguous 100 MHz channels for 5G, some 3.5 GHz awards resulted in high spectrum costs, highlighting the importance of a clear roadmap for future spectrum access.

The second element is understanding industry needs. 6G will require 200–400 MHz channels per operator alongside sufficient overall capacity, and analysis indicates that, on average, around 2–2.5 GHz of mid-band spectrum may be required per market by 2035–2040, rising to around 2.4–3.3 GHz in higher-demand markets.

This does not mean that all of this spectrum needs to be made available at once. A credible roadmap towards these figures will give operators visibility for long-term network planning, while widespread harmonization will deliver economies of scale and help keep devices affordable.

Creating a sustainable, equitable 6G environment can provide a platform for economic opportunity in the 2030s. The decisions taken on spectrum, standards, infrastructure and investment will determine not only how capable 6G networks become, but how widely their benefits are shared.

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