Bitcoin (BTC) could see stronger support than gold if investors unwind bearish positions in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, JPMorgan says.
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted the difference in positioning between Bitcoin and gold ETFs. Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) remains near its yearly high, while short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is below its historical average.
IBIT also has a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD, indicating heavier demand for downside protection around the Bitcoin fund.
“This contrast suggests that Bitcoin still faces an overall more skeptical positioning backdrop than gold,” JPMorgan analysts wrote.
The bank believes this positioning could work in Bitcoin’s favor if hedging demand falls. Investors closing ETF short positions need to buy back the shares they borrowed, potentially creating additional buying pressure. A reduction in options hedges could also prompt market makers to adjust their positions.
Notably, both Bitcoin and gold ETFs attracted fresh inflows after the Federal Reserve’s July meeting as investors returned to the so-called debasement trade, which involves holding scarce assets as protection against inflation, currency weakness and rising government debt.
However, the trend has weakened since then. JPMorgan cited higher inflation-adjusted bond yields and the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act among the factors weighing on Bitcoin demand.
Gold has also recovered more strongly from earlier ETF outflows. JPMorgan estimates that gold ETFs have recovered all of their 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have regained only around half. That leaves Bitcoin with more room to recover if demand improves, the bank said.
The cryptocurrency’s positioning comes as on-chain indicators show some signs of stabilization.
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost said earlier this week that short-term holders had kept their coins in profit for almost a month. He estimated that around $168 billion worth of short-term holder Bitcoin was in profit, compared with just over $100 billion in loss.
Elsewhere, large Bitcoin holders have also played a major role in the market this year.
On Thursday, analyst Woominkyu said wallets holding at least 100 BTC accumulated roughly 115,000 BTC from January through mid-September. The strongest accumulation came during Bitcoin’s August advance, when large holders continued adding as the price moved higher.
That buying has, however, slowed in September after Bitcoin failed to hold above $80,000, with the latest weekly data showing some selling. Woominkyu described the move as a pause rather than a sign that whales have abandoned the market, noting that they have given back only a portion of the Bitcoin accumulated this year.
“This is not a buy or sell call,” Woominkyu said, adding that the latest red bar represents “a change of pace, not proof the move is over.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains below a key resistance area. Earlier this week, Glassnode analysts identified $83,000 to $86,000 as a significant zone, where long-term holder supply is concentrated and the estimated breakeven price level for BTC.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $84,086, down 0.50% in the past 24 hours.
This articles is written by : Nermeen Nabil Khear Abdelmalak
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